This page explains how to interpret a SagaHalla Oracle Trace Report — a transparent, auditable record of how the Oracle evaluated an asset, resolved uncertainty, and produced a trade decision.

The Oracle Trace is not a prediction. It is a decision artifact.

1. Signal Snapshot

At the top of every report you will see a Signal Summary:

• Primary Decision: BUY / SELL / HOLD
• Exposure Weight: Allocation strength vs cash in a single asset portfolio (0–100%)
• Confidence: Final strength of the decision after MC Bias, scenario modifiers, integrity and regime checks
• Cash Reserve: Unallocated capital as a percentage (references prior Oracle history)

This snapshot answers one question:

“If acting upon the intelligence trace report, what would be the decision logic and why?”

2. Commentary

The Commentary is a human‑readable synthesis of the entire decision process.

It integrates:

• Recent price behavior
• Trade history context
• Monte Carlo simulation bias
• Integrity diagnostics
• Regime classification

Think of it as the verbal compression of the full Oracle Trace Report.

If you only read one section, read this.

3. Decision Audit

This section shows the mechanical reasoning behind the decision.

Typical elements include:

• Ensemble Consensus: Net BUY vs SELL vote
• Conflict Resolution: When both BUY and SELL signals coexist
• Statistical Confirmers: z‑score, Sharpe, Hurst, ADX, autocorrelation
• Filters: Integrity, volatility‑of‑volatility and other constraints

Example interpretation:

BUY was selected not because SELL was absent, but because BUY had higher admissible strength.

4. Position History

This section grounds the Oracle decision in relation to its past decisions.

You will see:

• Historical BUY / SELL executions
• Execution prices
• Cash percentage over time
• Position size evolution

This ensures:

• No retroactive decision rewriting
• Clear linkage between signals and exposure

The Oracle never hides prior actions.

5. Price Context & Trade Markers

The price chart overlays:

• Candlestick price action
• BUY / SELL markers
• Exposure weith intensity

Use this section to visually confirm:

• Entries during favorable price dynamics
• Exits during uncertainty

6. Monte Carlo Bias & Sigma

This is where probabilistic reasoning appears.

Monte Carlo Bias

• Directional skew of simulated future paths
• Positive bias favors BUY; negative favors SELL
• Delta p(buy) - p(sell) expressess the relative MC bias strength

Sigma Percentile

• Measures dispersion quality of the simulated paths
• High sigma = outcomes diverge → smaller exposure weights
• Low sigma = outcomes cluster → larger exposure weights

Important:

The Oracle does not trade on prediction accuracy — it trades on structural uncertainty.

7. Integrity Diagnostics

The Oracle evaluates three price integrity dimensions.

Material Integrity (Price Structure)

Price structural coherence.

Energetic Integrity (Free Energy)

Usable price energy given the structural order.
Higher energetic integrity means price movement is active, healthy and ready to move and do work.

Ethereal Integrity (Information Persistence)

Memory, trend persistence relative to energetic processes.

Together they answer:

“Is the price structurally sound, energetically alive, and informationally coherent?”

8. Regime Identification

Based on integrity combinations, the Oracle classifies the environment:

• CALM_TREND
• NEUTRAL
• CHOP
• AGGRESSIVE
• BREAKDOWN

Qualtitative factors and combinations determines:

• Allowed trade types
• Sizing limits
• Re‑entry behavior

Appendix: Oracle Trace Parameter Definitions

This appendix provides concise definitions for the many parameters referenced above to support understanding and auditability. More terms will be added as the documentation of Oracle outputs are developed.

Signal

The Oracle’s discrete action output at the decision timestamp (BUY, SELL, HOLD).

Confidence

A normalized measure (0–100%) representing how strongly the Oracle supports the signal.

Exposure / Exposure Weight

The fraction of available capital recommended for deployment (assuming single asset portfolio).

Ensemble Consensus

The dominant signal direction across multiple internal evaluators.

Sharpe Ratio

Risk-adjusted return per unit of volatility over a rolling window.

Z-Score

Standardized deviation of price or return from its rolling mean.

Hurst Exponent

Measure of long-term memory in the price process.

Autocorrelation

Correlation of current returns with past returns over a defined lag.

Sizing Multiplier

Scalar applied to base position size reflecting confidence and regime stability.

Risk Governor State

Internal constraints limiting sizing based on drawdown or stress.

Validation Status

Confirmation that all admissibility requirements are satisfied.

Decision Timestamp

Exact time at which the Oracle evaluated the market.

Execution Marker

Visual indicator of trade execution on the chart.

Cash Utilization

Proportion of capital currently deployed (with reference to Oracle history.

Monte Carlo Bias

Directional skew of simulated future price paths.

Sigma (Dispersion)

Statistical spread of Monte Carlo outcomes.

Sigma Percentile

Relative rank of dispersion versus historical levels.

Material Integrity

Measure of structural coherence of price action.

Energetic Integrity

Measure of usable (free) market energy.

Volatility Percentile

Current volatility relative to historical distribution.

Volatility of Volatility

Stability of volatility itself.

Ethereal Integrity

Measure of informational order and persistence.

Calmness

Penalty for extreme excitation that reduces interpretability.

Signal Record ID

Unique identifier for the Oracle decision instance.